So what does it really mean?

So here is the sitch as I see it. Spain is now under the control of a Socialist government. They will almost certainly pull the 1300 Spanish troops out of Iraq on or before June 30 because control of Iraq is not going to be handed over to the UN. As far as our efforts in Iraq are concerned, the effect will be minor. That 1300 is a small percentage of the total number of troops over there and the rest can easily take up the slack.

As far as our efforts in the global war against terrorists and their supporters the effect has the potential to be much larger. Recent posts of mine, and of others across the Web, have been full of doom and gloom predictions as a result of this. Many of these are worst-case scenarios. However, I do think it's likely that the results of the elections in Spain will embolden the terrorists and that they will try to influence elections in other countries in a similar fashion. Great Britain and the US especially are at greater risk because of this. We had them on the run. Now they're staging a comeback.

Just to make it clear, I don't think that all Spaniards, as individuals, are cowardly or stupid. However, in my opinion, the electorate of Spain in the aggregate has reacted fearfully and without thinking through the consequences of its actions. It's understandable that, only a few days after the worst terrorist attack to hit their country the people were confused and fearful. The terrorists could not have timed it any better if they'd tried. As this post by Glen Johnstone points out:

This was not a sober calculation on the part of Spanish voters that Aznar had failed to protect them from the forces of terror. Nor was it a demonstration that Spaniards fail to grasp the significance of the threats arrayed against them.

It was an emotional decision in the wake of unspeakable tragedy.

Glen goes on to make a very good observation:

What someone like me takes away from this is not that Spaniards don't take seriously the threat of terror, but that they misunderstand the implications of a less than stalwart approach in dealing with it.

Voting the way Al Qaeda would have preferred will not quench the terrorists' desire for fundamentalist change. It will only whet their appetite more.

This, then, will be the ultimate legacy of the Spanish election. We must ensure that this legacy is short-lived. Should there be attacks in Great Britain, the US, or any other of our allies in this war, we must recognize them for what they are: attempts to influence us to give the terrorists what they want. They already got it once, and that's one time too many.

There is a non-zero probability that this terrorist victory won't lead to more attempts. But I'm certainly not going to bet on it.